Check out Entertainment Weekly's Predictions for the big winners of the '07 Oscar Nominations. It looks like Babel stands a good chance of taking the Best Picture, and is a film I was sorry to miss in the theaters. But there are close contenders. Pan's Labyrinth, of course, deserves the award hands down, but wasn't nominated.
By rights the Best Director should go to Paul Greengrass (United 93), but I agree that Martin Scorsese (The Departed) will likely take it on account of being continually shafted for masterpieces like Taxi Driver, Goodfellas, Cape Fear, etc. I usually don't advocate giving awards "to make up for the past", but Scorsese is an exception, and The Departed is a great film anyway. I'd be happy with either Greengrass or Scorsese winning this one. In terms of directing their films were the best I saw last year.
I haven't seen The Last King of Scotland, but the trailer and other clips tell me the EW critics are right: Forest Whitaker is the foreordained recipient of Best Actor for an incredibly convincing performance as Idi Amin. Helen Mirren also seems to be a given for Best Actress (though I didn't see The Queen either).
Let's hope Pan's Labyrinth picks up some awards in the lesser categories, like Art Direction and Cinematography. It really deserved Best Picture.